2024 Will Bring The Biggest Crash of Our Lifetime

Hi Scott
 
A question for you if you wouldn’t mind commenting – is there any truth to economist Harry Dent’s latest dire warning of doom for shares and property in Australia? 
 
Jenny
 
Hi Jenny,
 
So I watched Harry on the Today show. He predicted that “2024 will bring the biggest crash of our lifetimes”, and suggested that the value of both Aussie shares and property could more than halve this year.
 
It was frankly … weird.
 
 The folks on Today are supposed to be journalists, but the hardest hitting question they asked wasn’t even a question. All the interviewer said (with a giggle) was, “Geez, that’s a bit depressing”.
 
So here’s a question I would have asked Harry:
 
“Harry, you’ve been incorrectly predicting that Australian property prices will crash for years.
 
“You said they’d be down by … 55% in 2009, 65% in 2011, 55% in 2014, 50% in 2016, 40% in 2018, and 40% in 2020. You have been ball-tearingly wrong for so long, why should we believe you today?”
 
And because he’s a savvy sausage, Harry would no doubt have a well-rehearsed rebuttal that would sow enough doubt in the minds of viewers eating their cornflakes to let him wriggle out of that question. So then I’d then follow it up with my final question:
 
“Harry, if you have all the answers, why don’t you set up an investment fund and make billions profiting from your predictions?”
 
Because, once upon a time he did. Except it was a dud, reportedly losing 80% of its assets before it was merged and closed down.

Should I kick my friend out?

Dear Scott,

I’m in a difficult situation with my friend. She’s been renting my large family home from me for the last three years, paying $825 a week in rent. I recently had a rental appraisal done and the estimated rent for the house is now between $1600-1800 per week! I’ve sent her the agent’s quote and asked her to make a decision within the month. My friend said the agent has overpriced my house and she wouldn’t pay much more than $820 per week. I know there is a housing crisis on at the moment and she has a family to consider. Help! What would be a fair thing to do? She’s already ‘unfriended’ me on Facebook!

Jocelyn

Hi Jocelyn

Thank-you for providing me with reason #784 that I am not on social media.
Look, it’s your money and not my place to judge what you do with it … but we’re not exactly quibbling over ten bucks here: you’re subsidising her to the tune of $50,000 per year!

So, you’ll have to decide whether you want to continue doing that.

If you don’t, I’d recommend hiring an agent to deal with this for you. Yes, it’s an added cost … but then again, so is the emotional cost of being unfriended on Facebook!

My advice?

Be classy, with your head held high. Tell the agent you want to give your current tenant the first right of refusal at the market rate. And if I were in your thongs, I’d be generous about giving her time to find alternate accommodation if she doesn’t want to pay the market rate.

Scott.

Am I a Greedy Landlord?

Scott,

I own an investment property in an area where rent prices have basically doubled during COVID. Do I keep my good tenant of nearly 10 years who is now on very, very low rent, or chuck him out to cash in on the double dollars with new tenants? The tenant could actually be making money as he has two rooms to sublet, and the rent from these could exceed the entire rental. The rent is actually so low now that it is embarrassing me — I feel stupid!

Helen

Hi Helen

You’re embarrassed? Really?!

Helen, there are plenty of things you could be sheepish about, but this is not one of them.

Helen, stomp your hoof, you’re a rolled gold daddy ram!

Here’s another way to frame your situation:

You’re a savvy investor. The value of your property probably went up 30% over the COVID period, while you were still able to provide a secure roof over the head of your tenants who were likely going through a really stressful time.

Am I saying you should let them rent it out well below the market rate?

No.

What I am saying is that you renegotiate while also being considerate of the people who’ve been paying off your investment. If they’ve been good tenants and have maintained your property well, they’ve earned the right to sit down and make a fair deal with you. Good tenants are hard to find. Giving a little often goes a long way.

Baaa!

Scott.

Timeshare Tragedy

Dear Scott,

My husband and I are in our sixties and on the pension. In 2007 we went to an Accor timeshare seminar and signed up to their deal. We paid $22,000 upfront, plus an annual maintenance fee. We’ve only used the hotel three times (it’s always booked out). Yet we’ve been paying these annual fees ever since. Our bill this year was $990, and it goes up every year. We’ve been told we can’t get out of these annual payments unless we declare bankruptcy, or die. We’ve had to sell a lot of our assets to live. Help!

Julie and David

Hi guys

This is outrageous.

You were robbed — with a pen — by a $12 billion-dollar publicly listed company!

At least with an old-fashioned hold-up it’s done and dusted in a few minutes. These robbers are holding a gun to your head till the day you die!

(Consumer group CHOICE found that timeshares can “lock you into contracts that run from 60 to 99 years, and can cost you as much as $450,000 over the long run”).

If I were in your shoes — pensioners on a low income — I wouldn’t pay them another cent.

After all, they’ve already made their money twenty-fold from you.

Fair cop!

However, if you do this they may play hardball and sic their debt collectors onto you, and even try and bankrupt you.

So it seems to me you have two choices:

You can keep paying them till the day you die.

Or you can call the (financial) cops on these robbers. Give me a call during the week (when I have my financial counsellor hat on) and I’ll help you lodge a complaint with AFCA, the Australian Financial Complaints Authority.

Scott.

Following My Dream

Hi Scott,

I am trying to follow my dream of buying my own home before I turn 30, even though I am on an average wage. But my accountant recently put me in touch with his property advisory team and they are adamant I should buy an investment property (with their help) as a way to pay less tax. It has got to a point where I have started ignoring their calls as they just will not listen to me. Am I being too stubborn or am I doing the right thing?

Tash

Hi Tash,

Interesting predicament.

Here’s what I’d email your accountant (feel free to use it):

Dear Mr Accountant,

I’m breaking up with you and your firm, effectively immediately.

It’s not me, it’s you … and your salesmen mates who keep hassling me.

Seriously, they remind me of a desperado date I’ve been on before (I know they only want one thing, and they won’t take ‘no’ for an answer).

It’s all a little creepy and, dude, I just don’t need that from my bean-counter.

Regards, Tash

If you have an uncomplicated set-up (pay-as-you-go job, no investment properties), you should be able to complete your tax return with myTax through myGov. And if you need to maximise your deductions, check out the ATO’s myDeductions app.

Put the money you save towards your house deposit, not these clowns.

Scott.

Scrooge McDuck

Sir Scott,

I see your dread and fear of low interest rates, and will slay this with my positive outcome. My investment property in Queensland, which I bought cheaply, is positively geared and is reaping the rewards. I bought it in 2018 and interest rates have continued to decline each year. I feel this is a much better approach then just letting money sit in the bank earning next to nothing. I am quite shocked as to why you never encourage investment property purchasing when there is affordable housing across Australia. I feel you coach people to be Scrooge McDucks.

Pete

Hi Pete,

As they say in the classics, where do I start?

Whenever I talk about cash, I’m talking about short-term savings: money you’ll need in a pinch.

You suggesting that an investment property is an ‘alternative’ to saving money in the bank is weird.

They are not the same.

There are three things your 18-month journey into property investing hasn’t taught you yet:

First, interest rates may be the lowest in history now, but remember you are taking on a 25-year mortgage.

Second, properties are expensive to maintain. Something costly almost always goes wrong when you least expect it, and that will eat into your return.

Third, when speculators without Mojo go bust, it’s not pretty. And it happens quite a bit, especially in the go-go Queensland apartment market. Wait a few more years and you’ll probably see it.

Look, it’s not about being Scrooge McDuck, having money for money’s sake. That’s the opposite of my message. Rather, it’s about having a financial cushion so you can say “I’ve got this” no matter what happens to you.

And that gives you the ultimate return: sleeping well at night.

Crash Landing

Hi Barefoot,

My wife and I live in regional Australia, earning good dough. Our problem is our rental in Brisbane. Our tenants (no problem up to this point) have been stood down due to COVID. He is a pilot and the main income-earner for his family of six. For the past three months we have discounted their rent by 50%. They have just come back requesting a further discount period because he is still on stand-down. Shouldn’t they have their finances sorted so that my wife and I are not subsidising their lifestyle? Or do I show a level of compassion and continue with discounted rent on the basis that some rent is better than zero?

Gary

Hi Gary,

You seem like a good bloke. Many landlords haven’t been as generous as you, judging by a report out this week from Better Renting which found that fewer than 10% of tenants who asked for rental relief received a satisfactory discount. Yet, if I were you, I wouldn’t simply approve their request for a further discount period.

Instead I’d write to them explaining that the fairest thing you can do is give their family time to make some tough financial decisions. Nominate a certain date you’re willing to give them to make that decision, and, importantly, spell out the amount that this will cost your family. At that date they need to come to you with an acceptable offer, or move out.

Scott

Student Digs

Hi Scott,

You generally advise your readers to buy a house first and invest later, but I am wondering if this is always the best approach. I am currently trying to decide whether to invest in a student accommodation apartment. It costs only $150,000 and I have enough for a 20% deposit. I am thinking the rental income will pay itself off and I can make extra repayments as well. Meanwhile, I will continue to save up for my house deposit. What would be the risks?

Leonard, Your #1 Fan

Leonard,

Be honest: you don’t really want to buy a dog-box in the sky.

What you really want to do is speed up the time it takes to save a house deposit. Other people try doing it with shares, thinking it’s better to own shares in, say, a bank (and be paid a dividend) than to have money in their miserly savings accounts.

Compared to saving up money in the bank, you can currently earn a higher income from property or shares, but your capital will not be secure. And that’s the biggest risk you face: a few years down the track you may find a home you really want to buy ... but the banks will knock you back because you own a ‘same-same’ student apartment that’s worth less than you paid for it.

Scott

Are Index Funds in a Bubble?

Hi Scott,

The financial guru from the movie The Big Short, Michael Burry, who made a fortune betting against the US housing collapse, is saying that the next big bubble is index funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs), and that things will get really ugly should the share market crash. Aren’t index funds what Barefoot recommends? How do you respond?

Steve

Hi Steve,

After the 1987 crash, governments around the world held at least six inquiries to work out what caused it.

There was no conclusive answer.

My guess is that investors were driven by their emotions:

First, by greed as they watched stocks going up (buy, buy, buy!), and then quickly by fear (sell, sell, sell!).

And, given human emotions don’t change, this behaviour will be what causes the next crash.

Faced with all this erratic decision-making, wouldn’t it be good to have a mechanical, unemotional, by-the-numbers way of investing?

Enter index funds (and Exchange Traded (index) Funds (ETFs).

They are simple to understand: you own, for example, a share in the 300 largest businesses on the ASX.

They have transparent investing rules: twice a year they rebalance the portfolio so it matches with the index (the market).

And, as a result, they have low turnover, low taxes and low fees.

In other words, they are the exact opposite of those actively managed funds that try and pick market swings and roundabouts.

In fact, we know that, over the long term, investors in these actively managed funds will end up with less money than they would if they’d invested in a simple index fund. (And repeated studies show that even those actively managed funds that do well in the short term often do so by luck rather than skill.)

Now, to your question: will things get ugly for index funds if there’s a share market crash?

Yes.

Yet it will be ugly for every investor, whether they’re in index funds or not. However, I still can’t see how owning a collection of the largest stocks on the market would put you at a greater disadvantage than other investors.

Steve, if you’re lying awake at night worrying whether you’ll be able to sell your investments in the event of a once-in-a-lifetime crash — rather than, I don’t know, making love to your wife — you really need to check yourself before you wreck yourself.

Besides, history tells us is that the day a market crashes is the worst time to be selling.

Scott

Let me tell you about the smartest 23-year-old woman I know:

Her name is Samantha, and she’s worked out a way to get a private 30-minute financial strategy session with me every single month. How much does she pay me?

Nutt’n.

In fact, I pay her $40!

Then again, she does wield sharp scissors and often holds a razor to my throat (so I’m the very definition of a captive audience).

Over the past few years I’ve heard about her on-again, off-again, on-again boyfriend (it’s my version of MAFS … each month I get a new episode). Yet over the past 12 months they’ve gotten engaged, and are now looking to buy.

She put in my lap a brochure from a new development on the ‘fringe’ of Melbourne.

“This joint looks more like the back of the mullet than the fringe”, I quipped (as she snipped dangerously close to my ear). “How much are you looking to spend?”

“We’re looking at places around $450,000, and we’ve saved up $50,000”, she said.

“That’s a great start, but not enough.”

“Well, we’ve already got pre-approval from the ANZ!” she countered.

“Did you have to submit payslips or any other documentation?” I asked.“Er … no.”

That, I explained, is the equivalent of a swipe right on Tinder: you’re not getting married, you’re simply in the ‘maybe’ pile. So I challenged her to spend the next month playing the field, and she dutifully went to two banks and a broker.

The response? “Yes ... no … and maybe."

Still, Samantha is in a rush, and she wants me to wave my magic wand and help her buy as soon as possible, “while prices are low.”

But here’s the interesting thing:

At 23, she has absolutely no concept of an economic downturn. In fact, even her parents, who are in their early forties, have never experienced a recession in their adult lives.

Let’s put that in perspective:

In the 1991 recession, Aussie property prices had their longest fall on record: 20 months of decline.

So how does that compare to today?

Well, nationally prices peaked in September 2017, which means they’ve been falling for 17 months.

However, I’d argue that this slump is only getting started, for three reasons:

First, the Reserve Bank suggests there are almost $500 billion in interest-only loans that are due to be reset to principal-and-interest in the next five years, which their analysis suggests will cost the typical borrower $7,000 more a year.

Second, interest rates are already at historical lows, so small rate cuts add up to only small repayment savings. And besides, it’s unlikely the banks will pass on the full rate cuts.

Finally, the upcoming federal election will likely bring a new government, and with it changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT).

As a result of all these factors, banks are being very cautious with their lending … and it’s the banks that ultimately control property prices, based on their willingness to lend.

Plenty of people who bought in the past two years are copping a buzzcut. That’s why my advice to Samantha -- and anyone else with less than a 20 per cent deposit -- is simple: there’s no rush!

Tread Your Own Path!

When cashed up bogans run out of luck

You know what really grinds my gears?

Cashed up bogans.

For years, their success stories have been clickbait for news websites. They all run along the same lines:

Craig and Cheryl were just like you - wasting their lives away reading empty articles on the internet instead of applying themselves at work. Yet unlike you, they made the decision to buy five investment properties five years ago.

Today the young couple are worth $3 million and they’ve retired (to run a property investment advisory business). The savvy couple’s advice to people wanting to follow in their footsteps? “If we did it, anyone can. All you need is passion” says Cheryl. “Hustle!” adds Craig.

(Insert photo of the smug couple with matching tans, tattoos, and teeth.)

“Come on, they were just lucky!” I yell at my computer screen.

They didn’t work, or create anything … all they did was take on a lot of debt and rode their luck!

Well, let me show you what happens when your luck runs out, this time with a real couple: Michelle and Ian Tate.

In 2013, the Tates decided to expand their property portfolio … to five properties.

Despite the fact they had three young kids.

Despite the fact that they were relying on only one income, which was heavily dependent on a cyclical industry (mining, as a fly-in fly-out FIFO worker).

It didn’t take long for things to go (as my father would say) ‘tits up’.

So, who is to blame?

Well, the couple blame the bank for lending them the dough.

And so do their lawyers, Maurice Blackburn, who have made them the lead plaintiffs in their blockbuster Westpac class action with the charge of irresponsible lending.Hang on a moment.

If we’re talking about acting irresponsibility, how about not taking a few moments to question how their single wage could possibly feed both a family of five, and five properties. It’s not that hard. All they needed to do was click away from Facebook and head over to a Mortgage Calculator:

“Strewth! If interest rates go up by 0.1% the computer says we’re cactus!”

It seems to me that there was a healthy dose of greed and stupidity on both sides.

The banks closed their eyes and went on a borrowing binge to hit their profit targets ... and many borrowers did pretty much the same thing. (And now, in the circle of corporate life, the greedy lawyers are licking their chops at the chance of a big payday.)

Look, I’m a fan of kicking the banks, yet I’m an even bigger fan of personal responsibility. And the media? Well, it’s a fan of whatever gets the most clicks, which this week was, “Family’s $1.8m Westpac mortgage hell”.

Tread Your Own Path!

Preparing for Apartment Armageddon

Hi Scott,

A few years ago I read your prediction that inner city apartment prices would fall. Since then I’ve been saving hard and am relieved to see property prices finally going down! I am now a few months away from having enough for a 20% deposit. Do you have any advice for first home owners looking to buy in the next year?

Tammy

Hi Tammy,

Well done for playing the long game!

(In 2015 I wrote ‘an open letter to the young people of Australia’ where I predicted that 2018 would be the year that first apartment owners would get their revenge, because of an oversupply of newly built inner city apartments.)

My first bit of advice is that there is no need to rush.In fact, 2019 is shaping up to be an even tougher year for the property market. A NAB survey released late last month found that confidence in the housing market has hit new lows (then again, NAB’s own behaviour hasn’t exactly been a confidence-builder either).

The apartment market has gone from FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) to FONGO (Fear of Not Getting Out).

Use it to your advantage. With a large (and growing) deposit, and the ability to negotiate, you’re in the box seat.

FONGO on!

Scott

Does Renting Now Make Sense?

Hi Scott,

I would like your thoughts on something that is bothering me. Forecasters think that house prices are set to fall at least 5% over the next year. If you buy a million-dollar house now, in a year you will have paid 4% stamp duty upfront and 4% interest in servicing -- and suffered a 5% drop in value. That’s 13% gone, wiping out over half of a 20% deposit! Isn’t renting at a 3% to 4% yield better? Should there be a ‘Barefoot Warning’ that rent money sometimes is not wasted?

Dee

Hi Dee,

My warnings for first home buyers aren’t about falling property prices, but rising interest rates.I devoted an entire chapter to it in my book: it’s called ‘The Curious Case of the Postcode Povvos’ … first home buyers who live in cafe suburbs … but can’t afford a coffee because they’re a slave to their mortgage.

In that regard, I totally agree that rent money is not dead money if you can’t afford to comfortably service a mortgage and have a commonsense buffer for higher interest rates (which will come at some stage in the next decade).

My view?

With falling prices, there is absolutely no rush to buy your first home. Yet don’t get paralysis by analysis. You’ll pay stamp duty and interest whenever you decide to buy. So, once you find a home you love, that you can afford, and that you will live in for at least a decade, buy it.

Scott

This morning I arrived home from a family holiday from Bali

I’ve just arrived home from a family holiday.

As I opened my front door, I quickly realised I’d brought home a souvenir from Bali: bacteria.

Yes, I’m typing this bent over with a bad case of ‘Bali belly’. Yet nothing bad ever happens to a columnist, so I’m using my tummy troubles as an analogy for how the world financial markets are feeling right now:

Queasy.

And worried about what’s coming down the err … pipes.

Case in point, here are the headlines that greeted my arrival back into the country:

“House prices to fall 15%: Morgan Stanley”

“ASX plunges ‒ $50 billion bloodbath”

Pass the bucket!

However, I view these headlines as about as reliable as consulting Dr Google about my tummy troubles:

“Bloating? Cramps? Vomiting? You could have stomach cancer! And possibly rabies!”

So what is really going on with investment markets, and, more importantly, what should you do about it?

Well, at long last the markets have started paying attention to the fact that global interest rates are on the rise.

Yet this shouldn’t come as a surprise to my regular readers … I’ve been banging on about it for years.

In fact, way back in 2015 I wrote an article entitled “2018, The Year First Home Owners Get their Revenge”, in which I urged young people to start aggressively saving up for a 20% deposit so they’ll be prepared to take advantage of lower house prices.

And for people approaching retirement I’ve long advised to save up a buffer of two to three years of living expenses in cash (less any government pension payments) in their super, so they aren’t forced to sell when the real crash comes.

That’s the real rib-tickler: for all the doom and gloom headlines this week, global interest rates are still incredibly low, and they’ve only just begun rising. In my tummy analogy, what we’re experiencing is merely an uncomfortable rumbling.

Yet the truth is that we Aussies, by taking on record household debt at a time when interest rates are at record lows, have already swallowed the bug. As a result, plenty of overstretched people may well find their financial lives will end up in the toilet sometime in the next decade.

The most important thing to take out of this week is to ask yourself: am I prepared?

Trust your gut.

Tread Your Own Path!

What will Labor do to my wealth?

Hi Scott,Given the way the Liberals have self-destructed this week, it’s looking increasingly likely they’re not going to be in office next year. Yet the thought of Bill Shorten making it into office terrifies me. I am 54, earn $110,000 a year, and have an investment property. Should I be worried? How do I prepare?

Rod

Hi Rod,I wouldn’t advise basing your long-term investment decisions on short-term politics. (After all, the way Canberra craters, next year we could have Kyle Sandilands and his deputy Jackie O having a tilt at the leadership.)A good case in point is Donald Trump, who the experts suggested would be a disaster for the US economy, and who has (thus far) proved everyone wrong.Having said that, Labor’s proposed policies ‒ restricting negative gearing to new properties, and halving the capital gains tax discount ‒ will almost certainly serve up a short-term hit to our already fragile housing market.A study from RiskWise Property Research and Wargent Advisory suggests Labor’s proposed policies would cause a 9 per cent fall in house prices in NSW and Victoria, 7 per cent in WA and the NT, and 6 per cent in South Australia and the ACT. That’s a guess, of course, but an educated one.Investment legend Warren Buffett has said that he’s never based an investment decision on the current state of the economy, or on the politics of the day. That’s because he knows that, over the long term, the future is incredibly bright.

Scott

“Housing to Fall 50% by 2020”

Hi Scott,

After reading your column on mortgage stress, I was curious what you think of American demographer Harry Dent’s predictions for Australian property. He seems like a pretty educated man and his predictions seem terrifying ‒ our housing market could fall by over 50% by 2020, according to him.

Neil

Hi Neil,

Harry Dent has, in his own words, “predicted nearly every major economic trend over the past 30 years”.

True.

Though that’s possibly because Dent predicts the future like my two-year-old plays ‘How many fingers is Daddy holding behind his back?’

Namely, by yelling out random numbers and giggling hysterically: “12!”, “4!”, “382!”

Or in Dent’s case, his financial finger game is about predicting how much Aussie property prices will crash:“55%!” (2009), “60%!” (2011), “50%!” (2014). All wrong. Not only did prices not fall, since 2009 they’ve risen nationally by 69%.

And now he’s saying prices will fall “50% by 2020”.Mind you, he’s had no more luck picking the Dow Jones index: “40,000!” (2004), “5,600!” (2014), “3,000!” (2018).

(The Dow is currently at 25,000.)

Dent’s economic theory is based on tracking how the life-stage spending of Baby Boomers affects the share market and property prices. And that’s one point we agree on: that our demographics eventually become our destiny. Yet, as Dent has also proven, that doesn’t mean it gives him a crystal ball that will pick future prices.

The bottom line is this: you have zero control over what the market does, but total control over what you do.

Plan accordingly.

Scott

Should We Refuse to Pay?

Barefoot,

My husband and I (stupidly) bought a timeshare in Vegas back in 1997 ‒ we had just got off a plane and were feeling very jet lagged! We have tried a gazillion avenues to offload it ‒ we even offered it to a number of charities for free. My question is: if we stop paying the maintenance fees, will that affect our ability to get into the US when we travel there (we have family there)? Alternatively, do you know how we can offload it?

Melanie

Hi Melanie,

You’ve been paying this timeshare for 21 years ‒ you’d get less for murder!

It’s like an ugly chihuahua ‒ you can’t give these things away.

As for payment, I’m afraid you signed up to Hotel California: you can check out any time you like … but you can never leave.

In other words, you signed a legally binding contract to continue making payments, and timeshare operators reserve the right to sue you for payments you fail to make, and they often do in Australia.

As for overseas operators, well, I’d think it’d be unlikely they’ll chase you, but I’d definitely seek legal advice as to what the ramifications are.What a nightmare!

Scott

You’re Being Unfair, Barefoot

Dear Scott,

I read your article last week on Wyndham timeshare, and I think what you said was a little unfair.

We have been with Wyndham for around 10 years, and it has been great for us because we were able to pay without borrowing, and we enjoy great holidays. The accommodation is actually really good – large rooms with modern accessories and plenty of facilities (pool, gym, mini-golf, tennis court, etc).

We did the numbers, and in our situation and on our package we believe we will be ahead after 30 years. So we took the chance that we will live beyond 60 and have free holidays thereafter, plus other benefits. It is not incredibly great value, but it has suited us and we are happy to lock in holidays for the rest of our lives (health permitting).

Max

Hi Max,

You sound like you have “Stockholm syndrome” (definition: “Feelings of trust or affection felt in many cases of kidnapping or hostage-taking by a victim towards a captor”).

Did you really sit in that high-pressure sales seminar, doing your sums, and say to your wife:

“Honey, by my calculations we’ll be ahead in … 30 YEARS … let’s do this!”

You’ll only be ahead if you totally disregard the time value of your money ‒ and you don’t mind staying at the same hotel chain for the next 62 years. Consumer complaints have prompted ASIC to review timeshare holiday schemes. Let’s hope they rub these shonks out, because they’re a complete rip-off.

Here’s why:For consistency, let’s say you pay the same fees as I described in last week’s column: to get 12 nights’ accommodation in their hotels, every year for a lifetime, it’ll cost you $122,909 over 62 years … though likely significant more because they can jack up their ongoing fees by as much as 5% a year.

The same money invested in a share fund would be worth $3.7 million. And the true value of the upfront timeshare payment is less than $10,000, which is what other timeshare hostages are trying to sell them for on Gumtree.

Scott

The $3.7 million Hotel Room

Hi Scott,

We recently went to an investment seminar where we were offered a chance to buy into a vacation club with international resort group called Wyndham. There are a number of different options, but the one we are looking at is the mid-range offer: we pay $22,146 upfront (financed at an interest rate of 13.15% over five years), plus a $746 annual levy. That entitles us to ‘7,000 credits’, which equates to 12 nights’ accommodation in their hotels, every year, for a lifetime. What are your thoughts?

Jess

Hi Jess

I thought timeshare died out in the 80s, along with windsurfing, mullets, and Reef Oil coconut tanning lotion … but apparently not.

Let’s get one thing clear: this is an investment like a Shane Warne commemorative ashtray is an investment. And the only thing ‘mid-range’ about this offer is the hotel room you’ll be staying at (with the bolted-to-the-floor TV).

I spent an hour of my life that I’ll never get back reading through the Wyndham product disclosure statement (PDS), and by the end of it I seriously wanted to swig some coconut oil.

To the numbers!

After five years you’ll have paid $34,066.

Yet it gets worse. Much. Much. Worse. The real rub of the coconut is that annual fee. The PDS states that you’re signing a legally binding contract that commits you to pay the $746 annual fee until … wait for it … 2080.

**** Regardless of whether you actually use a hotel.

** And the annual fee can be increased every year. Based on a 2% increase (the PDS states they can go as high as 5%, or CPI), the total cost of this timeshare will be $122,909.

*** And there’s all sorts of restrictions around when you can book rooms, and additional fees you’ll be slugged.

Let me put in another way:

If you’d invested $22,146 plus $746 a year over the same period into a share fund, you’d end up with $3.7 million in your back pocket. Yes, you wouldn’t get the benefit of staying in the hotels over the 62 years, but at least you’d have used your coconut.

Postscript:

Wyndham Vacation Clubs Asia Pacific kindly provided me with the following quote, which I’ve edited for length:

“We note this is an investment column, however Club membership is never promoted as an investment choice, but rather a lifestyle product providing a number of benefits to its members each year for the life of the Club.”

It may not be promoted as an investment choice, but it is a ‘managed investment scheme’ that involves entering into a 62-year contract with no termination clause.

However, they are right about their ‘benefits’. Some of these timeshare outfits lure holiday-goers with free tickets to Wet’n’Wild just to get them to sit through their pitch.

And those who sign up get completely hosed, and end up wet and wild: a quick look on Gumtree shows people selling their $22,146 upfront timeshare payment for $10,000.

** ‘Negotiable.’

Scott

Our Tenant Burnt Our House Down

Hi Scott,

Our tenant burnt our investment property down (has been charged with arson). The property has landlord insurance for $500,000. The insurance company has offered us $309,000, or to rebuild it themselves. They’re also being a bit suss on paying us for lost rental income. Our mortgage is around $380,000, but the block will also need to be cleared. Is there any way we can get the $500,000 we are owed, or close to it?

Tammy

Hi Tammy,

You may be insured for $500,000, but the fine print in your policy may say that all the insurer is required to do is reinstate you to the same condition you were in before the fire. And if they can get away with paying out $309,000 instead of $500,000, that’s what they’ll do. You’ll need to read your policy carefully to see what it says.

Remember though your policy was written by the insurance company lawyers, with the aim of giving them maximum wriggle room. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t challenge them -- especially on the loss of rental income. You have nothing to lose, and everything to gain.Let your insurer know that if don’t get a satisfactory outcome, you’ll register your complaint with the Financial Ombudsman Service (1800 367 287). After that your insurer has 45 days to resolve your complaint.

Scott