“Housing to Fall 50% by 2020”

Hi Scott,

After reading your column on mortgage stress, I was curious what you think of American demographer Harry Dent’s predictions for Australian property. He seems like a pretty educated man and his predictions seem terrifying ‒ our housing market could fall by over 50% by 2020, according to him.

Neil

Hi Neil,

Harry Dent has, in his own words, “predicted nearly every major economic trend over the past 30 years”.

True.

Though that’s possibly because Dent predicts the future like my two-year-old plays ‘How many fingers is Daddy holding behind his back?’

Namely, by yelling out random numbers and giggling hysterically: “12!”, “4!”, “382!”

Or in Dent’s case, his financial finger game is about predicting how much Aussie property prices will crash:“55%!” (2009), “60%!” (2011), “50%!” (2014). All wrong. Not only did prices not fall, since 2009 they’ve risen nationally by 69%.

And now he’s saying prices will fall “50% by 2020”.Mind you, he’s had no more luck picking the Dow Jones index: “40,000!” (2004), “5,600!” (2014), “3,000!” (2018).

(The Dow is currently at 25,000.)

Dent’s economic theory is based on tracking how the life-stage spending of Baby Boomers affects the share market and property prices. And that’s one point we agree on: that our demographics eventually become our destiny. Yet, as Dent has also proven, that doesn’t mean it gives him a crystal ball that will pick future prices.

The bottom line is this: you have zero control over what the market does, but total control over what you do.

Plan accordingly.

Scott