If the economy is so screwed … why is the share market at all-time highs?

I was in at the ABC the other day when a young Gen Z bloke who worked there (whose hairdo made him look like one of my alpacas) nailed me with a killer question:

“If the economy is so screwed … why is the share market at all-time highs?”
 
Great question!
 
He’s dead right, of course. For most people the economy is ‘stuffed’. And it’s not just a feeling. Over the last year household incomes in Australia have dropped by more than in almost any other country in the world.
 
Yet, while our politicians are busy flogging the supermarkets with their own $20-a-kilo lettuce leaves, it’s not making much of a difference. Prices keep going up.
 
It’s shocking, and depressing ... and yet it does beg the question:
 
Does the share market know something about the future that we don’t?
 
Nehhhy …  spits Pedro the alpaca.
 
In fact, the share market has predicted nine out of the last two recessions!
 
Seriously, though, the question of why the share market is at record highs right now has a long answer.
 
(Interest rates coming down? Donald Trump going up? Artificial intelligence replacing us all? Who the heck knows? Not this alpaca farmer.)
 
Yet the short answer is actually pretty darn simple:
 
Shares mostly go up.
 
That’s right. Most years shares go up. That’s because the share market is really just a collection of businesses that make a lot of money and compound it over time.
 
The chart below tells the story:

The other thing you should know is that the term ‘record highs’ is a newspaper headline writer’s best friend: each day the share market goes up by even a point, it’s a new record high! The next day it may dribble up another couple of points. Another record high!
 
Now it is true that the share market occasionally crashes (though no-one can accurately predict when it will happen). Yet, as the chart shows, shares always recover.
 
That’s why I told the ABC kid the same thing I tell everyone:
 
Follow the Barefoot Steps, and become an investor.
 
Just don’t wait for the alpaca-lypse!
 
Tread Your Own Path!